Global trade is projected to rise by 34-37 per cent by 2040 with right enabling policies to leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) for productivity gains and lower trade costs, per a new WTO report.
However, non-tariff measures , including antidumping duties and export restrictions, targeting AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors, could jeopardise global dissemination of AI, the World Trade Report 2025 released on Wednesday cautioned.
“For AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth, policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment,” the report titled ‘Making Trade and AI Work Together to the Benefit of All’ pointed out.
Global trade in AI-enabling goods totalled $2.3 trillion in 2023, it noted.
“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort,” WTO DG Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.
The report pointed to the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies.
“A growing set of quantitative restrictions, such as import and export quotas, licensing requirements, and even bans, are increasingly shaping trade in AI-related products,” the report noted. These measures are almost exclusively used by the high-income group, which generally have low tariffs, so the overall level of protection is higher than what might be concluded from tariffs alone.
For instance, AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors, face relatively low tariffs, but are increasingly targeted by non-tariff measures, including antidumping duties and export restrictions.
“AI development and diffusion is also being held back by the relatively high trade costs imposed by regulations on services trade and data flows. Such trade restrictions could jeopardise the global dissemination of AI,” it said.
Key policy areas that need to work together with trade policy for AI to be beneficial are intellectual property and competition policies, infrastructure and labour market policies, and industrial policy, the report said.
High-income and upper middle-income economies have a substantial lead in regulating AI and and adopting trade-related complementary policies, and this risks widening the structural divide across income groups.
On the crucial need for a balance between data protection and data flow, the report observed that legitimate policy objectives, such as protecting data privacy, can come into conflict with objectives to further open cross-border flows of products and data.
“Policymakers face complex challenges as they aim to achieve policy objectives without compromising inclusive growth through AI and trade. International cooperation can be an important avenue to address such challenges,” it said.
The WTO could play an important role in helping to deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits, the report pointed out. It noted that 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place in the context of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.
“Additional commitments from members, such as through broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more inclusive and affordable,” the report added.
Published on September 17, 2025
