The three private telecom operators including Bharti Airtel (Airtel), Reliance Jio (Jio) and Vodafone-Idea (VIL) are expected to report healthy in the first quarter (Q1) results backed by steady average revenue per user (ARPU) growth subscriber gains.

For instance, Airtel is expected to register 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 3.1 per cent QoQ growth in its India wireless revenue and EBITDA respectively, led by robust mobile broadband subscriber gains, said JM Financial Research in a report.

Airtel is expected to report robust mobile broadband (MBB) subs addition, at 5.5 million in Q1 FY26 (vs 6.6 million in Q4 FY25) while its overall subscriber addition is expected to be slightly lower at 2.3 million (added 0.5 million overall subs in April-May 2025 as per TRAI’s data), it said.

Further, its wireless ARPU is likely to grow 1.6 per cent QoQ to ₹249 (vs ₹245 in 4QFY25) due to upgrades and improved subscriber mix and aided by one more day QoQ in Q1 FY26 (while July 2024 tariff hike has completely passed through its ARPU by end Q3 FY25), the market research firm said.

“Hence, we build in 2.6 per cent QoQ growth in India wireless business revenue to ₹273 billion (₹27,300 crore) and 3.1 per cent QoQ rise in EBITDA to ₹162 billion (₹16,200 crore). However, the enterprise business is expected to continue to witness sharp decline of 12 per cent QoQ in EBITDA due to 3 per cent QoQ revenue decline (as it continues to move away from commoditised low-margin businesses) and normalisation of margin,” it said.

It further added that while fiber-to-home (FTTH) is likely to witness healthy subscriber gains (around 7,50,000 subscriber addition QoQ).

Similarly, Jio’s standalone revenue is expected to grow by 2.7 per cent QoQ to ₹31,200 crore and 3.5 per cent QoQ growth in EBITDA to ₹16,800 crore, it said.

However, its standalone profit after tax is likely to be flat QoQ at ₹6,640 crore in Q1 FY26 due to full quarter impact of higher depreciation and amortisation (at ₹6,480 crore in Q1 FY26 vs ₹5930 crore in Q4 FY25) on account of capitalisation of 5G spectrum and net fixed asset towards end of Q4 FY25, it added.

It also said Jio’s ARPU is expected to grow 1.8 per cent QoQ to ₹210 (from ₹206) due to one more day QoQ in Q1 FY26, upgrades and residual flow-through of July 2024 tariff hike (in its Q4 FY25 earnings concall, the management shared that the full impact of the July 2024 tariff hike is likely to be fully visible by Q1 FY26).

“Further, Jio’s net subscriber gain (including FTTH/FWA) is likely to be robust at 7.2 million in Q1 FY26 (added 5.3 million overall subscribers in April-May 2025 as per TRAI’s data; vs subscriber gain of 6.1 million in Q4 FY25).

On VIL, the JM Financial report said that it expects revenue to grow 1.1 per cent QoQ to ₹11,100 crore, reported EBITDA to be higher 1.8 per cent QoQ at ₹4,740 crore and cash EBITDA to be higher 3.5 per cent QoQ at ₹2,400 crore in Q1 FY26.

ARPU is likely to improve 1.6 per cent QoQ to ₹167 due to improved subs mix and one more day QoQ in Q1 FY26 (vs ₹164 in Q1 FY26) due to upgrades and improved subscriber mix and aided by one more day QoQ in Q1 FY26, though it could be partly offset by net subscriber loss of around 9-lakh, it added.

Published on July 2, 2025